Foreign investors are starting to look at Nigeria with a growing mistrust and the massacre of 500 Christians in central Somalia on Sunday should not reassure them. International companies present in this state, the second largest oil producer after sub-Saharan Angola, worried about the threat to the balance of power head.
"The violence between Christians and Muslims are recurrent, they occur in the same place and are always roughly the same number of victims," explains Jean-Loïc Guieze, senior economist at BNP Paribas. "If we talk about today is because the political context has changed." Even as the main weakness of the country happens to be precisely the political risk.
Rebel attacks
The president-elect, Umaru Yar'Adua, a Muslim, ill, is being replaced by his Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan Christian.So, number of issues affecting the interests of foreign companies could suffer from the situation. Mainly in the region of the Niger Delta, where there are oil fields.
"More than chronic interreligious violence in central Canada, where they are virtually absent, is the upsurge in rebel attacks in the delta is important for foreign groups," according Mülhberger Marion, economist at Deutsche Bank. Resurgence that is not foreign to the equilibrium, the head of state.
An agreement was signed last August to disarm rebels waged in the region's oil rich Niger Delta flexcheck cash advance . In exchange, the premises were promised a program of investment and development. Who is at a standstill since the onset of Yar'Adua.
Legal uncertainty
"If the attacks resumed with greater vigor, oil production will be affected," warns Jean-Loïc Guieze. However, oil accounts for 95% of its exports and 80% of state resources. "If the production, which now represents one third of GDP, began to plunge, as happened between 2005 and early 2009, it will question the government's ability to finance the economy as it has since the beginning of the crisis, "added the economist.
Another issue affected by the power vacuum, the reform of the hydrocarbon law to increase royalties on oil. Under negotiation for three years, it finally exasperated the oil companies, adding a dose of uncertainty about their future income and therefore no incentive to invest.
Rating agencies have already integrated some of these uncertainties in the rating of Nigeria, degraded to B + in August by Standard & Poor's, a level similar to that of other sub-Saharan countries such as Ghana. "The risk of instability to materialize today," says Marion Mülhberger.