It was two years ago, April 25, 2008. After corn, soybean, rapeseed and palm oil, the price of rice, a staple food for two thirds of the global population, hitting record highs, causing riots in Argentina in the Uzbekistan, via Senegal. At this precise date, the Thai rice prices, seen as the market benchmark, climbed 5% to more than the symbolic threshold of $ 1,000 per tonne against $ 360 on average in late 2007. On the CBOT rice prices have gained 80% since 1 January 2008.
This panic, out of fear of insufficient production for the domestic market of exporting countries after weather problems, a knee-jerk protectionist prices to offset their local market. Among them, Thailand, but also leading exporter India. "Nothing can justify these prices.There was a major production but it did not go out on export markets, "says Nicolas Fragneau, manager of Amund Funds Global Agriculture.
Production off again
Two years later, in March 2010, the markets seem to have regained their composure. Production prospects are revised upwards by improving yields. According to the report in April by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global production for the 2009-2010 campaign is expected to reach 440.81 million tonnes against an estimated 434 million in 2007-2008. Apart from Thailand (100,000 tons), estimates of all exporting countries have been revised upwards.
Stocks are expected to reach 90,202 tons against 81,002 tons during the 2007-2008 campaign.Global consumption is expected to be almost in line with the production of 441.508 million euros low fee payday loans.
The return of exporters
In the process, world trade restarts: 29.97 million tonnes should be exchanged against 29.74 million in 2007-2008. Thailand has announced that 2 million tonnes of old crop stocks and public would be offered to the market this year.
India, heavily criticized for two years, is still under surveillance markets. The exports are expected to remain at their low levels of 2 million tonnes this year as in 2008, against 6.301 million tonnes in 2006-2007. However, the country should return to the path of the market through its 25.7 million tonnes of rice available.
The end of a speculative bubble
All these predictions presage a return to reasonable prices.Since 1 January this year, rice prices in Chicago fell by 13.56%. "In February, world prices continued their decline. The supply is abundant and Asian new crop begins to arrive in the main producing countries, "explains FranceAgrimer in point monthly. The price of Thai 100% B showed $ 550 per tonne in late February. The Vietnamese rice was trading at $ 430 per tonne in the same period.
"Unlike 2008, the prices are consistent with the situation of supply and demand on the trade market. Unless climatic important, the market should return to levels of 'normal', "explains Nicolas Fragneau.
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