China never ceases to show strong growth insolent, given the economic performance of developed countries. The government announced Monday it was a growth of 8% in 2010, the same as that expected for 2009.
The Chinese economy could do even better. The OECD estimates, as many economists that the figure could reach 10%. As in 2009, domestic demand will be the main engine. Indeed, exports, traditional engine of Chinese growth should remain at historically low levels. "The surplus of current account (trade balance in value between China and the rest of the world, Ed) is expected to fall sharply to about 5.5% of GDP in 2010 before rising slightly in 2011 when the growth in domestic demand will weaken, "the OECD states.
Risk of overheating
Beijing does not want the machine goes.Growth "in double digits" in 2010 would not be good for China, warned Fan Gang, adviser to the Chinese central bank cited by Bloomberg. The wave of unprecedented credit may increase the risk of the loans on risk or cause a bubble in the housing market. Some also fear a resurgence of inflation. Not sure however that the government manages to take the reins of the Chinese economy. In 2007, his estimates were exceeded by 17%.
Still, it should be easier for Beijing to reach the 2010 target than 2009. For the "world's factory", whose economic health depends largely on exports, had everything to lose from a global slowdown.
During the year, China saw its exports melt. In October, they fell 13.8% year on year.The improvement recorded in November, with a limited decline to -1.2%, should not mislead: if the figure is better because it has a base effect misleading. The month of November 2008 had recorded the first fall in Chinese exports since 2001.
Boosting consumption
Faced with this reversal, Beijing has opted to change engines and boost domestic demand. The government launched in November 2008 a recovery plan across the country, giant. About 450 billion euros were injected in the form of consumption aid. What boost demand in electrical goods … And the car market, now the world's first, before the United States. In November, car sales jumped 75.8% yoy to 946,400 units.
Banks have also been involved. They were strongly encouraged to open the floodgates of credit.According to rating agency Fitch Ratings, the volume of loans expected to jump 32% in 2009, total outstanding credit to represent 127% of GDP over the year, against 106% in 2008. "The unprecedented growth of credit (…) has surpassed all forecasts issued earlier this year," Fitch said in its annual note on the Chinese banks published in mid-December.
Result, while China's growth not marked the beginning of the year, with "only" 6.1% from January to March, it has rebounded in the second quarter to 7.9% a year. The International Monetary Fund estimates that China could well exceed its target for 2009 and see its economy grow by 8 to 9% over the year.