Far from the torpor on the United States and Europe, emerging Asia is in great shape. "Largely thanks to China, regional output, exports and employment have recently regained their pre-crisis levels," notes the World Bank in its half-yearly report on East Asia and the Pacific, published Wednesday. It is therefore auspicious that takes place this Thursday and Friday at the Hanoi summit of ASEAN (Association of Asian countries of South-East) *.
For the World Bank, East Asia will play a key role in the global economy this year. Developing countries in the region should grow 8.7% in 2010, says the institution has revised upwards its forecast of 7.8% last fall.A positive trend favored by the "revival of foreign demand," a "quick rebound in consumer spending" and "further fiscal stimulus," says the report.
Sign of good health in the region, levels of industrial production rebounded sharply once the international application has regained color in the middle of last year. In December 2009, Thailand has seen its production soar by 35.9% yoy, while the Philippines registered a rise of 11.1% and Malaysia 8.9%, according to the World Bank.
The effect of "recovery plans"
In fact, the basis of comparison is highly favorable, production in Asia has reached its low point in late 2008 and early 2009. "There is also a technical explanation for this impressive rebound in production of consumer goods in East Asia.The stimulus packages adopted in the region and the West have brought the resumption of international trade, "says Edgardo Torija Zane, economist for emerging Asia at Natixis, whose GDP growth forecast for the region in 2010 is between 5% and 6%.
The impact of the crisis was much less evident in East Asia than in developed countries. "The Asian developing countries had some leeway and tax money," explains Delphine Cavalier, an economist India and Southeast Asia at BNP Paribas. The recovery plan in place in Malaysia accounts for 9% of national GDP, but its risks are limited because the country's public deficit is relatively modest.Public investment has supported domestic demand throughout the region in 2009, including Thailand, where the recession was at least 2.5% of GDP last year, against forecasts of 5% , adds economist at BNP Paribas cash advance no fax.
"In a return to normal activity and price stability, monetary authorities across the region have begun to remove certain exceptional support," notes the World Bank."But it is perhaps premature at this time to remove fiscal stimulus programs in some countries, because private investment has still not become the engine of growth and poor people still suffering," warns institution.
Attracting Chinese
This flat does not prevent analysts look to the future of Southeast Asia with optimism. "All the ingredients are there strong momentum," said Edgardo Torija Zane. The changing demographics of Asian countries, economic reforms over the past twenty years, the opportunities of globalization for developing countries to cheap labor are all assets that emerging Asia could be argued.
And most importantly, the rise of China on the global economic benefit to Asian countries, whose exports to the Middle Kingdom in raw materials and intermediate products manufacturing grew by 79% in December 2009, according to Natixis. The sluggish consumer spending European and American force Beijing to reconsider its position on the board of trade. "China wants to strengthen its ties with ASEAN countries and lead the process of regional integration," says Delphine Cavalier. An operation seduction that resulted in development aid to the Philippines, for example.
The Free Trade Agreement between China and ASEAN established the 1st January 2010 is a strong signal of the explosion of intra-Asian. The growing influence of Beijing has always raised in the region. Indonesia and the Philippines are afraid of getting crushed on the textile market.However, this process of integration is necessary, according to the World Bank.
The ambitious project to create, by 2015, an ASEAN economic community (AEC) will be at the heart of debates at the summit of regional leaders in the Vietnamese capital.
* The ASEAN comprises ten countries, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.