In September 2008, the President shall declare 38 times the word "crisis". At the time, into recession is symbolized by the collapse of the subprime bubble and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In November 2011, the difficulties have not disappeared, but the excessive debt of the States of the euro area, combined with rising interest rates, is at issue. What, among other things, plunge Europe into a "brief period of recession," as the OECD noted in its latest report.

"The idea of ​​the all-powerful market that is always right, it's over," Nicolas Sarkozy had struck in 2008. The President would then "re-found capitalism on ethics." Today, markets, wary, put pressure on European government claiming the lowest interest rates high payday loans with no fax.And when Standard & Poor's error sends a message stating that it lowered the rating of France, no sanction can be taken, despite the threats of the Minister of Economy Baroin.

• Debt: rigor replaced the stimulus

In September 2008, the time is not in a pinch. The word "debt" is also pronounced only once on a 45-minute speech. Prime Minister Francois Fillon may well have said, from 2007, that France is in bankruptcy, Nicolas Sarkozy prefers comfort by speaking of recovery. In fact, France will suffer a crisis less severe than its neighbors: the stimulus package and the "automatic stabilizers" (welfare, RSA) have cushioned the recession. But these instruments have increased the debt.

The investigation of this type of case takes on average between 12 and 18 months. But the length of the procedure does not scare GDF Suez, which the argument is simple: the law requires that the procurement costs of the company are covered by fees, and grant a small margin. Upon arrival, if the formula price was applied on October 1, gas prices for individuals would have had to climb 10%.GDF Suez's estimated shortfall by the end of the year to some 290 million euros.

For its part, the Commission for Energy Regulation (CRE), the industry policeman, issued an opinion unfavorable to the Government Order. Meanwhile, the regulator gave the Minister of Industry, a report on the Exploring the evolution rate of increase gas prices. One of the measures mentioned by the CRE is to increase – in the development of the formula – the share of the market price of gas now cheaper for the consumer and supply contracts in the long run.

This design technique should allow to reconcile the evolution of gas prices with the political imperative to avoid any increase, especially brutal.

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A successful international expansion

Casino has succeeded mainly in some countries. The group of Latin America's main platform for international expansion, although the group has some nice success in Asia (Thailand and Vietnam). First, it is Brazil, where Casino owns jointly with its parent company Rallye, 48.1% of CBD Grupo Pao de Açúcar. The success of Casino in the country had also been salivating Carrefour and its shareholders. They had tried to orchestrate a merger that was not the taste of Casino.

A successful real estate subsidiary

Casino can also count on its real estate subsidiary Mercialys. It is worth 2.56 billion euros for a wealth of 2.54 billion euros. In fact Carrefour has assets, much larger, estimated at 15 billion euros. But its real estate subsidiary project fell into the water.

Little excitement in the shareholding

At Casino, ownership has been stable since the merger in 1992 Rallye and Casino. Jean-Charles Naouri has locked the capital since its holdings Rally and Kerrous hold 51.09 and 6.49% of shares. Brother Albert is a quiet and faithful shareholder with 1.7% of the capital. At Carrefour, the float was very important before Bernard Arnault and Colony Capital will invite themselves to capital. They jointly hold nearly 14% of the shares 100% free credit score.

Governance, clear and precise

At Casino, Jean-Charles Naouri decides.At Carrefour, the change of presidents have succeeded without success. Since the departure of Daniel Bernard, nor José-Luis Duran or Lars Olofsson have managed to revive the company. On the contrary, records against Carrefour-performance, particularly in France.

To a satisfactory third quarter Casino

Wednesday, October 12 evening, Casino will publish its revenue for the third quarter. While billings should not proceed at a pace as rapid as in the first half (+18.8%) but growth is expected to remain satisfactory. Unlike Carrefour, Casino relies on strong performances in France.

The stock options

These findings illustrate the past, but investors should now focus on the analysis of the perspectives of both groups. From this point of view, the stock options is tricky.In fact, Carrefour has fallen very low and it is difficult to imagine a new fall of the action. Carrefour has suffered a lot of hedge fund strategy of buying and selling Carrefour Casino uncovered. Most of the fall of Carrefour is behind us. The recovery will take time but it should be occurring at one time or another. Casino has a real advantage for the shareholder, the group pays a regular dividend and generous. Those who want to enjoy a very high efficiency can also turn to rally, the parent company of Casino.

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Thursday night, the European Central Bank (ECB), the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan reopened their facilities dollar loans to European institutions to three months, at their request . The decision was hailed by leading international institutions including the IMF, through its President Christine Lagarde: "This is a clear indication on their part, from the two largest members of the euro area from a point of Economically, the future of Greece is truly in the euro area.This appears to be strongly rooted in them both, "she said Thursday night by referring to the Franco-German tandem. The same applies to the ECB: "We are all very closely 'united in one purpose,'" said last night Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB.

A meeting of finance ministers in Poland

Still, brokers are concerned that this improvement was not part of the time. "The coordinated central bank takes the market today," noted Toshiyuki Kanayama, broker at Monex, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires. But this does not solve the problem of the euro area should have a temporary effect. "And as if to echo, the Austrian Minister of Finance, Maria Fekter, has not ruled on Friday that bankruptcy Greece is a better alternative to a bailout too expensive."We should consider this alternative," she started.

Suddenly, all eyes have turned to Wroclaw in Poland, where there is a meeting of EU finance ministers on Greece. It should last two days and overcome the remaining obstacles to the implementation of the second plane to Athens to help avoid bankruptcy the country, totaling nearly 160 billion euros, decided July 21. Note that Timothy Geithneir, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, will attend the round table.Two press conferences are scheduled this Friday at 24:00 and 17:30.

Barack Obama campaigning for his plan for employment

On the other side of the Atlantic, U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday night that his plan for the use of 447 billion dollars could generate "up to 2 points of growth" and lower "a point unemployment ", by creating 1.9 million jobs, in a speech in Washington. And while the United States are experiencing an unemployment rate of 9.1%.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro kept most of the gains made the previous day. The European currency was worth 1.3848 dollars and 106.31 yen Friday morning, down slightly compared to 1.3882 dollars from the previous evening.Similarly, the oil price displayed in a small increase in morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" earned 5 cents to 89.45 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea 14 cents to 112.44 dollars. "This liquidity will likely prevent the recession to hit the euro area, supporting crude oil prices," said Victoire Shum, an analyst at Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

On the macroeconomic front, foreign trade and balance of payments in the euro area for the month of July will be published on Friday.

In France, business start-ups in France rebounded in August after two months of decline.A total of 41,697 companies were created last month, according to Insee, a figure up 7.5% from July, which was the worst month for a year and a half.

In Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that German GDP growth would be "closer to 3% than 2.5%" this year.This statement comes as concerns about the impact of cooling of the global economy on the German economy, heavily dependent on exports, are more vivid.

United States, the net capital flows and the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan will be published early in the afternoon.

Values ​​to follow

Banking

Again, banks, led by Societe Generale (4.96% to 19.19 euros), Credit Agricole (3.30% to 5.70 euros) and BNP Paribas (3.92% at 31, 69 euros), will be scrutinized by investors, following the decision by central banks to help European institutions.

Air France-KLM (0.84% ​​to 6.11 euros) and EADS (+0.02% at 22.22 euros)

The manufacturer will control 50 devices equally between European manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, for a total of $ 11.3 billion (8.1 billion euros) to ensure the renewal of its fleet, say Les Echos to be published Friday.

Hermes (-6.08% to 252 euros)

Resumption of trading on Friday for the title of the luxury group, which was suspended the day pending the decision of the Court of Appeal in Paris on speculation about the fate of its capital due to a possible takeover bid by LVMH.

Areva (3.17% to 21.66 euros)

The group has suspended two months for the production of two French factories processing of uranium due to the decline in demand for nuclear power plants in Japan after the disaster in Fukushima, officials said Thursday from the French nuclear group.

EDF (2.25% to 21.09 euros)

Group and Electrical Delmi A2A and its majority shareholder, who jointly control Edison, announced the extension of their shareholder agreement until October 31 at number two in the Italian electricity.

In any case, what emerges from the latest wave of the Baro-Eco Viavoice for HEC, Le Figaro and France Inter, in August, the total fertility fell by 30 percentage points from May "Unheard of. And, – 55, the index fell to its lowest level since its inception in 2004, "insists François Miquet-Marty, president of Viavoice.

All indicators are in red and some even collapsing altogether. Thus, three out of four frames (+ 25 points) expect a deterioration in living standards in France in general in a year, against one in two in May.And nearly eight in ten (39 + points) forecast an increase in unemployment in the coming months (the survey was conducted before the publication of poor figures from July). "The extent of the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators is particularly worrying," believes François Miquet-Marty payday loans.

Fear of a recession

In this context, it is not surprising that they are pessimistic about the evolution of the economic situation. Seven in ten think that France "will again be in recession" over the coming months."The risks of recession concern especially as states now have more ways to revive the economy," said President Viavoice.

The personal perspectives of white-collar darker too, even though the labor market frameworks remained well oriented in July, according to latest statistics from the Apec, with offers up 67% over 12 months. According to the barometer Viavoice near a two-part (+ 16 points) think their personal financial situation "will deteriorate." More than eight in ten believe that the opportunities to advance their careers will be "weak". "Vote the budget framework of Franco-German proposals against the crisis, G20 in the fall: the appointment of school appear to be crucial to restore the confidence of executives," said François Miquet-Marty.

Click the preview to enlarge the graphic.

Investors seem reassured by the Fed to continue to support that ensures the growth of the United States by a new policy of monetary easing.These remarks, made during the last minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, reinforce those of the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, who on Friday called the elect to make fiscal stimulus measures to complement the action of the bank Central. They were also supported by the publication of encouraging indicators.

Busy schedule in the U.S.

On Thursday, investors will keep an eye on the macroeconomic agenda of the day will still be charged in the United States. On the menu: the Monster Employment Index and weekly jobless claims before the highly anticipated monthly employment report on Friday. Productivity in the second quarter and is expected construction spending and ISM manufacturing.

In France, the unemployment rate as defined in International Labour Office (ILO) decreased slightly by 0.1 points in the second quarter to 9.1% on average in metropolitan (9.6% including the departments of overseas), according to data seasonally adjusted (SA) Interim released Thursday by the INSEE

As for the oil markets, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 21 cents to 89.02 dollars in morning trading and a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery climbed 29 cents to 115 , $ 14. On the currency markets, the euro fell slightly to 1.4358 dollar.

Values ​​to follow

Banking

Greek debt is out of control and the measures taken by the government can not restore the finances, the report of an independent parliamentary commission on Wednesday.

Illiad

The internet service provider reported in the first half of 231,000 new subscribers under its brand Free (excluding Alice), a market share of 36% and saw its EBITDA margin to improve by a , 4 point to 40%, or 416.4 million euros on sales of 1.04 billion (+2.6%).

France Telecom

The U.S. administration has initiated legal proceedings Wednesday to block the sale of Deutsche Telekom's U.S. subsidiary T-Mobile to the giant AT & T for reasons of respect for competition.

Pernod Ricard

The French producer of wines and spirits, announced Thursday a 10% increase in net profit for the year 2010-2011, exceeding for the first time the billion euros.

Eurazeo

The investment company said Thursday in a loss of 106.3 million euros in the first half due to losses on derivatives and goodwill

GDF Suez

The group said it had completed the acquisition of gas storage sites in Germany.

Eiffage

The new CEO of the group does not preclude the sale or closure of loss-making subsidiaries to consolidate the early resumption of the performance of the construction group observed in the first half.

Saint-Gobain

The group announced it would invest $ 100 million (69.41 million euros) in the United States to create a factory specializing in the manufacture of ceramic balls ("proppants") used in wells oil and gas.

Latécoère confirms its objectives

Lagardère

The group was forced to significantly revise down its forecast for operating profit for 2011 because of the difficulties encountered by the sports center in the first half.

Maurel et Prom

The group took the first half of the increase in its oil production and high prices in oil prices to clear the results up sharply.

Guyenne et Gascogne

The group reported a loss in the first half, the franchisee of Carrefour have been penalized by its subsidiary Sogara whose accounts were affected by several non-recurring items.

Latécoère

The group, whose net income rebounded sharply during the first half, confirmed its targets for operating profit in 2011 and 2012.

Theolia

The group reported Wednesday a recovery in its interim results, the French wind power has reduced its interest expense over the period, particularly through the conversion action of nearly two million of bonds.

After market, Neopost will publish its revenue for the second quarter and Stallergenes results for the first half.

For security, the three New York airports – JFK, La Guardia and Newark – will be closed to aircraft arriving Saturday at noon (18 hours Paris time). The flights from these airports, however, may take off until further notice. This is an extraordinary disruption to an area that typically concentrates the air flow one of the densest in the world: each year, as many as 100 million passengers pass through this metropolis.This weekend, nearly 8,000 flights should be canceled.

Like most of his counterparts, Air France announced Friday the cancellation of all flights to New York JFK on Saturday and Sunday, while disturbances are waiting on those provided to and from other cities the coast, like Washington, Philadelphia or Boston. The resumption of service, from Monday, could also be laborious and cause further disruption, have also warned the airlines.

Transport suspended

Measure more tangible for the people, public transport will be suspended in the Big Apple this Saturday from noon until probably Monday rush hour. The subway, buses and railways do not circulate. Motorists have also been asked to leave their cars at home until the alert is lifted.If winds exceed this weekend 96 km / hour, the authorities of the State of New York have also warned they would close the main roads towards the city, and some bridges.

Given the restriction of transportation and possible damage caused by the passing of Irene, the inhabitants were ordered to stockpile water and food in preparation for the weekend. "Water is our product that sells best," noted the retailer Wal-Mart on Friday. Many are those who are armed with power generators in case of power failure.

To address these potential damages, the cost could rise to nearly $ 12 billion according to consulting firm Kinetic Analysis, U.S. authorities are preparing to deploy in new ways.900 National Guardsmen and 2,500 workers in the electricity sector include ready to intervene in case of power failure. All these measures aim to avoid at all costs repeating a scenario to Katrina, the hurricane that was painfully struck New Orleans in 2005.

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In July, Crédit Agricole said that the participation of the bank in terms of aid to Greece and the operations of its subsidiary Emporiki, the country would have an impact of up to 850 million euros on its performance in the second quarter. Finally, the load is lighter than expected: Greece does not cost "only" 640 million euros on quarterly Credit Agricole. A load that is distributed as follows: 202 million euros (146 million after tax) for impairment of securities of the Greek states and 494 million for the goodwill of the Emporiki Bank (2006).However, the debt problem gecque led the market value of Crédit Agricole in a dramatic decline: its stock has lost nearly 35% of its value since the beginning of the year.

These results confirm the long-term goals

As for results, the bank has indeed announced Thursday a net profit after minority interests fell by 10.6% to 339 milion euros in the second quarter versus the same period in 2010 payday advance. But this is higher than expected by analysts who had forecast a quarterly profit of 193 million euros. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale were published at the beginning of the respective benefits of 2.12 billion euros and 747 million.

According to the CEO of Crédit Agricole Jean-Paul Chifflet, these results confirm a positive underlying trend at the operational level of the bank, in the 2014 strategic plan, presented last March. The group aims to achieve a return on equity of 10% to 12% by 2014. The bank would also surpass the 25 billion euros in net banking that date.

In the medium term, Crédit Agricole has no plans to increase the capital despite the market turmoil in July and August, denied the report, published Wednesday in the Letter of expansion of 1.5 billion euros, dedicated the recapitalization of its subsidiaries in Southern Europe. However, the group recognized that its goal of returning to profit for Emporiki Bank in 2012 would be compromised.

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Frédéric Oudéa. – We have suffered a series of attacks on markets. First in the form of rumors denied by the rating agencies-the loss of the rating "AAA" of the French state, which was scheduled for Wednesday night or this morning. Speculation was then caught the banking sector, naturally exposed to the economy of his country, and sovereign debt in the euro area. Finally sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, attacked the General Society.

You have not suffered significant trading losses in recent days …

We have not suffered any loss and our special perfomances to date are satisfactory.The Company generally relies on three businesses: retail banking in France [which has a good dynamic], retail banking abroad, mainly in non-euro area countries that do not suffer from the problem of finance public, and finally the investment banking and investment for eighteen months gives off very positive and constant. We have a high solvency ratio of 9.3% and have demonstrated our ability to continue generating capital.

Greek Prime Minister spoke of an extension of the Greek rescue plan for maturities greater than 2020. What are the consequences for your institution.

This is only speculation. We would in any case not covered by such an extension: we do not have Greek securities with maturities are greater than 2020.Our exposure to Greece was fully funded in the second quarter, according to the methodology recommended by the Institute of International Finance.

Do you understand the fears of investors in the euro area?

I do not at all extreme scenarios markets. I do not think that the euro is at risk: governments are very attached to the single currency and lucid on the efforts to achieve to meet their commitments to fiscal consolidation.

To what extent the nervousness on the interbank market affects you does?

We have no fear on our lending: we achieved 93% of our long-term funding program year.Short-term side, we have 105 billion euros of underlying assets with central banks and keep full access to the interbank market.

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Both men called on States to the euro area to accelerate the implementation of the comprehensive plan to rescue Greece definitely reassure the markets.The urgency is evident: "It will take months before the European Stability Fund is able to buy government bonds on the secondary market, as decided by the European Council last month," said the office Study Capital Economics. In the meantime, fragile states are likely to face difficulties refinancing growing. In this regard, the Commission President José Manuel Barroso, said Wednesday that he would write to all Heads of State in the area to "squeeze" to "implement without delay" these measures, the being adopted by their parliaments.

European leaders also need to fill a second front, the economic downturn which threatens to investors that the States of the euro area are not able to meet their deficit reduction program.It is the task that has been working Silvio Berlusconi, in a speech to Parliament just after the market close.

Fiscal consolidation

For half an hour, the Italian Prime Minister strongly defended the fiscal consolidation that his government plans to boost growth and drive the deficit to balance by 2014. If it has not announced any new target figure – or even offered to return to equilibrium faster – it has committed to implement an "immediate action plan" coordinated with the social partners and opposition, and expressed his determination to confront the crisis "with consistency and firmness, without following the nervousness of the markets."The "economic and financial fundamentals are strong in Italy," he said to them.

In terms of concrete measures, it confirmed the release of 7.4 billion euros in three years for the Mezzogiorno. He did not mention, however, measures to reduce overstaffing of government, the duplication of structures and salaries and excessive fringe benefits enjoyed by politicians and community leaders.

His intervention is therefore likely to disappoint the markets violently attacking Italy from the beginning of the week. Wednesday afternoon, the rate at ten years was $ 393 Italian basis points (3.93%) over the German Bund. A level equivalent to that of Greece there are sixteen months.

The Bank of Italy follows with vigilance the developments.Its governor, Mario Draghi, who will succeed in November to Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB was consulted twice in five days by the head of state. Silvio Berlusconi's speech was accompanied by Italian all-out offensive to try to reassure Europe and international investors. Giulio Tremonti met Wednesday for two hours in Luxembourg President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, who called for further "quiet" thinking about the debt crisis. For its part, the director Vittorio Grilli Treasury undertook a tour of Asia (Singapore, China and Hong Kong) to persuade sovereign wealth funds and the business community the opportunity to invest in Italian government securities.